What Percentage of New Traders Fail? (Part 5)
Posted by Mark on July 14, 2020 at 06:13 | Last modified: May 17, 2020 13:14Today I continue with excerpts from a Forex website forum discussion in 2013. The initial post, which tries to rebuke traditional wisdom, is Post #1 here. Forum content is unscientific and open to scrutiny. Do your own due diligence and buyer beware.
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• Post #47, 4xp
> The simple fact is that more traders have to lose than win
> in order for the winners to make money… we are able to
> have leverage because of so many losers in the market.
> IMO, I believe the number is closer to 90% failure rate
> than 99% that many have already espoused.
>
> The reason forums like this one are so popular is because
> there are so many losers. Most people are not making any
> money trading, so they come here looking for and hoping to
> find something they can learn from. By the time you get
> here, you have the blind leading the blind. Many admit
> they are newbies or learning. Others want to pose as
> experienced traders because of an oversize ego, but they
> are really losers. Others come here because they have a
> web site, but they do not know how to trade, so they
> beguile newbies to head to their site. When it is all said
> said and done, it can be hard to discern the very few that
> are good traders because they are hiding behind the guise
> of their computer screen.
>
> When someone says you cannot beat the market, that is all
> rubbish. The reason the ~10% beat the markets is they are
> armed with and trade their methodology so they can beat
> the markets. The few that win consistently take personal
> responsibility for their actions rather than blaming the
> markets. The markets can only go up or down. You just
> have to have a methodology that discerns which direction
> it is going then jump on board.
>
> It is also no such thing that the markets are a zero-sum
> game. All of us can be winners, or all of us can be losers.
> I don’t concern myself with newbies coming up through the
> ranks becoming winners and then rob my pot. No chance!
Lots of good ideas here! Some are speculation (e.g. paragraphs 1 and 4), but they are interesting nonetheless.
In another post, 4xp goes on to write:
> People lose because they do not take time to learn. When
> I first started in 2004, I was working in a factory. I’d
> get home, then start learning about the markets. It took
> much experimentation and labor. I failed many times. Was
> it worth it! Well, let’s see. I wake up in the morning,
> go through my morning routine, which includes some quiet
> time and a trip to the coffee pot, then I make the long
> walk down the hallway to my home office, and report to
> work. Ahh, yes. It was worth it.
>
> Simply put, if you were training to be a doctor, you
> would have to go to school for 8 years, and pay all that
> money. Here, it depends on your learning curve and does
> not have to cost what a doctor pays. When you are
> finished and ready to enter the markets, you make more
> than the average doctor. But, yes, it take work and
> lots of time.
Five stars on the first paragraph!
With regard to the second paragraph, I disagree with making more than the average doctor. Not only does 4xp suggest it’s guaranteed, whether it’s even possible is highly dependent on starting capital level.
To be continued…
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