Wasting Time

Posted by Mark on November 21, 2015 at 07:38 | Last modified: November 20, 2015 13:33

Not too long ago, I wrote about a disappointing trader Meetup where little discussed was truly actionable with regard to profitable trading. This past week I heard something very similar.

The trader in question was asked for her opinion on where the market is headed. She replied:

          “I feel that we’re caught in a range. There’s no impetus to         [1]
          do anything. People are scratching their heads over what the
          Fed may or may do. We had a muted reaction to the terrorist     [3]
          attack in France, which didn’t surprise me since we were so
          oversold at the time. We have the seasonality thing kicking       [5]
          in here. I was looking back last year wondering when the
          Santa Claus rally was going to come. I know the week of           [7]
          Thanksgiving tends to be very bullish and then we did get a
          pretty good selloff the first week of December followed by         [9]
          the Santa Claus rally. So this just tells me we’re going to
          chop around here for the rest of the year.”                               [11]

Aside from seeming like a run-of-the-mill, absolutely mundane/typical opinion about the market, one thing that did jump out at me was just how tremendously useless it is. Did you notice all the clichés?

1. “…which didn’t surprise me since we were so oversold at the time.”
   
2. “We have the seasonality thing kicking in…”
   
3. “…when the Santa Claus rally was going to come.”
   
4. “…the week of Thanksgiving tends to be very bullish…”
   

Urban legend anyone? If you think not then show me the data.

Why even talk about this sort of thing? Nobody will hold us accountable if we’re wrong. It’s also not the sort of content that could help anyone make money even if we’re right because prognostications are not intended to be financial advice (unless it’s premium content, which savvy traders know exists just to make the services/newsletters money, anyway).

Maybe it’s intended as small talk meant for entertainment but I think discussions like this occur because people don’t realize what we really should be talking about and what we should be working on. We could try a scientific approach to some of the above-listed clichés but doing so is probably something most people never even consider.