RUT Weekly Calendar Trade #14 (Part 2)

Today I conclude discussion of weekly trade #14.

Around 11:05 AM ET on expiration Tuesday, the market dropped quickly from 1255.80 to just under 1255. I did not really want to roll the second 1270 calendar to 1255. Because the trade had only 2+ more days and because I might be down over $100 on expiration Tuesday with a max potential profit at expiration of $400 or less (usually closer to $1000 at trade inception), I did not want to roll the other 1270 to 1255. I was guestimating on post-adjustment max potential profit. I find it difficult to model these positions and track the PnL. It was the heat of the moment too.

A couple minutes later, RUT sank below 1253 and I placed an order to close (not roll) the 1270 for $6.70. By 11:10 I had caved $0.50 and still was not filled. I wondered whether I should even be trying to chase at this point because: RUT had breached the lower BB (I’ve really learned this is a bad time to trade but it’s when my emotions run hottest compelling me to trade). Also, I noticed the bid/ask on the calendar was close to $3.60. If I waited then the market would calm down, bid/ask spreads would narrow, and I’d get a better fill. I therefore canceled the trade.

As the market drifted a bit lower, I felt I just had to get the damn thing off. I put in a 4-legged order for the remaining double calendar and caved $0.40 over 2+ minutes. I got filled 0.10 off the then mark for a loss of $74 (4.71%) with the market at 1252.37.

At 10:00 ET on expiration Thursday, the JulWk4 1255 put calendar was trading at 8.40/9.60 at 10:00 ET. By 11:30, it was 9.36/10.27 as of 11:30 ET. I would have gotten the full 10% profit had I rolled the second 1270 calendar to 1255.

Once again, I failed to follow the trading plan. The trading plan says nothing about how I feel about a trade, where the BBs are, how wide the bid/ask is, etc. This time, as previously discussed, what should have been a winner was closed at a loss.

This trade was a big confidence zapper.