Is Independent Trading Success Possible? (Part 3)

In this mini-series, I may have raised more than reasonable doubt as to whether verification of independent trading success is even possible.

One thing I cannot do is gather data by survey or questionnaire.  As mentioned previously, people will exaggerate and lie especially when it comes to matters of performance.  Someone believed to be successful can develop a tremendous amount of respect and admiration from others.  At the very least, this can fulfill Maslow’s needs for affiliation and esteem.  This can also serve as sales and marketing for products or services–especially trading newsletters or “educational” programs.  Can you say “conflict of interest?”

Since word of mouth cannot be trusted, I must focus exclusively on authentic documentation.  Some people may show me a trade confirmation or two, but this is far from satisfactory.  I need to see account statements and tax returns over a lengthy period of time to establish consistent profitability.  As discussed in my last post, I would also need to see them from a large number of people.

Fahgettaboudit, right?  In our society, people just don’t share such information with strangers.

While brokerages have access to the requisite documentation, I don’t believe they can be trusted.  No brokerage could serve as an objective investigator when promotion of trading stands to increase its profits.  To publish findings that independent traders are doomed to fail would be a conflict of interest with the brokerage’s bottom line.

The IRS also has access to the requisite documentation but from a practical standpoint, I see no justification for the research expense.  The IRS cares about collecting taxes, not demonstrating independent traders’ ability to succeed.  If they cared about success rates then they would certainly study numerous other professions as well, which would drive costs to an enormous sum.

Supposing independent trading success is indeed possible, now I question whether this is something we could possibly know.

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?